Broadford (@1.44) vs Smith O'Briens (@2.87)
30-09-2019

Our Prediction:

Broadford will win

Broadford – Smith O'Briens Match Prediction | 30-09-2019 08:30

Charlton are a good side, but if the Bantams are going to give away 2.13 expected goals and come nowhere near to matching that at the other end, then they may as well give up now. Bradford could have few complaints with the result last weekend, as they failed to match their opponents in terms of both creativity and defensive strength.

The Pirates may not currently be in the drop-zone, but as theyve won none of their last five, theyre far from safe. This home match against a Bradford side this is on the verge of being officially relegated represents an excellent opportunity to put three vital points on the board. Graham Coughlans men find themselves just three points above the bottom four, so it is important that they regain the winning thread soon.

They may be sat looking up at the rest of the table, but if anything, theyve performed better away from home against the sides around them than Bristol Rovers have at home. From a betting point of view, its not overly tough to make a case for the visitors. Add in Rovers offensive troubles on their own patch and a small bet on Bradford +1 Handicap makes plenty of sense.

Bradford could have few complaints with the result last weekend, as they failed to match their opponents in terms of both creativity and defensive strength. Charlton are a good side, but if the Bantams are going to give away 2.13 expected goals and come nowhere near to matching that at the other end, then they may as well give up now.

Goal Margins

Moreover, theyve surrendered an average of 1.65 goals and 1.67 expected goals away from home. In fact, defensive strength has not been a speciality of Grant McCanns men away from home this season, as theyve conceded at least once in 19 of their 20 travelling matches. Rovers are without a win in seven games on the road, while theyve not exactly covered themselves in defensive glory during that time. Fortunately for the hosts, Doncasters recent away-day efforts havent been overly impressive.

Such a number tells us that they were very lucky to avoid conceding. It wasnt too long ago that Bristol Rovers were starting to look like a tough side to get at; theyve never been the most dangerous going forward, but they gave little away and made life tough for their opponents. Rovers have now conceded eight goals in their last four, shipping an average of 1.74 expected goals. However, recent performances suggest that the Pirates have lost some of their defensive solidity. Prior to that, they shipped twice and conceded 1.36 expected goals. Last time out, they did manage to keep a clean sheet, though they gave plenty of chances away, as they surrendered 2.48 expected goals.

In fact, defensive strength has not been a speciality of Grant McCanns men away from home this season, as theyve conceded at least once in 19 of their 20 travelling matches. Fortunately for the hosts, Doncasters recent away-day efforts havent been overly impressive. Rovers are without a win in seven games on the road, while theyve not exactly covered themselves in defensive glory during that time. Moreover, theyve surrendered an average of 1.65 goals and 1.67 expected goals away from home.

Such stats dont exactly bode well ahead of a game against Doncaster, who come into this fixture having scored seven goals in their last two matches. Performances at home havent always been poor as far as Bradford are concerned; theyve often offered a threat going forward, while theyve not always looked weak at the back. That said, their last three matches at Valley Parade have seen them give too much away, as theyve conceded six goals and have shipped expected-goals numbers of 1.44, 1.38 and 1.86.

From a defensive point of view, the Bantams have given more away on the road than Bristol Rovers have at home, though that may not count for much given Bristol Rovers attacking struggles. Saturdays hosts have scored a measly average of 0.95 goals at home this season and have failed to find the net in a whopping 45% of their matches at Memorial Stadium.

Goal Timings

Fortunately, Saturdays hosts are up against strugglers Bradford, whove lost each of their last four on the road and whore now without an away win in seven. Bristol Rovers have scored in just two of those six and have scored a total of just two goals. That said, its not as if Bristol Rovers have thrived against the struggling teams at home this season, as theyve lost five of their six home games against sides that currently reside in the bottom eight.

From a betting point of view, its not overly tough to make a case for the visitors. They may be sat looking up at the rest of the table, but if anything, theyve performed better away from home against the sides around them than Bristol Rovers have at home. Add in Rovers offensive troubles on their own patch and a small bet on Bradford +1 Handicap makes plenty of sense.