Justin Gaethje (@1.53) vs Donald Cerrone (@2.5)
15-09-2019

Our Prediction:

Justin Gaethje will win

Justin Gaethje – Donald Cerrone Match Prediction | 15-09-2019 01:00

He only has tough fights and strung three impressive wins together in beating Mike Perry, Alexander Hernandez and Al Iaquinta but he is coming off a loss to Tony Ferguson. Cerrone is content putting on shows to please his fans and every other fan that appreciates Mixed Martial Arts. His longevity is extremely impressive, making his 33rd UFC fight, but his talents speak for themselves as he holds the records for the most wins, finishes, post-fight bonuses and knockdowns in UFC history.

Gaethje will be wise to throw his thunderous leg kicks to slow Cerrone down and force the pressure. If Gaethje walks Cerrone down like he did Barboza he could easily overwhelm him and finish the fight quickly but Cerrones experience will be crucial. This should be a stand-up war with Gaethje having a power advantage and Cerrone a technique advantage.

Gaethje is one of few fan-favourites to rival Cerrones notoriety. However, he got a taste of his own medicine in getting knocked out by Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier but got back to old ways in starching James Vick and Edson Barboza to set up this bout with Cerrone. Every fight is technical chaos and he maintained his reputation in his UFC debut by knocking Michael Johnson extending his unbeaten record and unholy knockout rate.

Justin The Highlight Gaethje

The last time he stepped in the cage, Gaethje earned a victory in the 1st round against Edson Barboza by stoppage. In the lightweight division, he is 52nd in strikes with 351 and 229th out of all fighters in the UFC. Justin "The Highlight" Gaethje comes into the cage with 20 wins and 2 losses. The Arvada, CO standout is 30 years old, weighs in at 155 lbs and stands 5'11" tall. He has a 70.0" reach and fights in the lightweight division. Gaethje has a total of 4 fights in the UFC.

Cerrone is going to have a hard time keeping up. The technique isnt as good and theres counters there for the opening when it comes to fighting Gaethje, but weve seen Cowboy struggle with pressure fighters in the past and it doesnt get more dangerous than his opponent here. If other fighters were like him, this sport would be even bigger than it currently is. Gaethje is a brawler who is going to walk down his opponent and looks to finish things quickly with powerful hands. First off, we have to commend Cowboy and his schedule, as the guy never takes an easy fight and is back in the octagon before his wounds from his previous battle even had time to heal. We saw Cerrone struggle with the pressure, work rate and quickness from Ferguson, and Gaethje is even more wild and careless. With that out of the way, Gaethje should win this fight. Cerrone gives the fans what they want and hes a legend for that.

At UFC Fight Night - Ottawa 2019, he stepped out of the ring with a win via unanimous decision in round 5 when he faced Al Iaquinta. Cerrone sits at 2nd out of all the athletes in the division for significant strikes pointed at the body with 301 and 7th for significant strikes directed at the head with 525. Dillashaw by stoppage. In addition, Cerrone sits at 24th in the lightweight division and 105th among athletes in the UFC with a total of 16 takedowns. In the fight before that, Cerrone stepped out of the ring with a win in round 2 when he faced Alexander Hernandez at UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. In the matter of strike accuracy, he is connecting on 51.6% of the strikes he has thrown which has him sitting at 48th in the lightweight division and 269th among athletes in the UFC. Sitting at 77th out of all the athletes in the division and 352nd among athletes in the UFC, Cerrone finishes 27.1% of his takedown tries. With 1,154 significant strikes, he sits at 9th among athletes in the UFC and 2nd out of all the athletes in the division.

Where Darren Till and Rafael dos Anjos just pushed him back and smashed him, Leon Edwards and Jorge Masvidal solved his approach with relative ease (Masvidal with his careful distance-closing and jab, Edwards with his southpaw kicking and counterpunching game). That said, those weaknesses still exist, and he tends to lose catastrophically when his singular tool to manage the distance is successfully navigated. Cerrone is also one of the more defined momentum-fighters in MMA, for better or worse; his attack snowballs heavily and his opponents tend not to mount comebacks if it piles up, but his losses tend to be extremely lopsided beatings before Cerrone finds opportunities to do anything of effect (and a bad first round often portends a bad fight for him). Cerrone has a number of traits that define a problematic matchup, from southpaws to good body-hitters (where Cerrones body is historically quite fragile) to sound pressure-boxers, and he hasnt really shown an answer to any of those yet. Whether Justin Gaethje can exploit those tendencies is yet to be seen.

The Cowboy

Gaethje is averaging 8.50 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 55 percent. Gaethje can give and take a beating, and he loves coming forward with pressure, making his opponent uncomfortable and keeping them on their toes. Gaethje has shown throughout his career that the striking power and the chin is there for him to hold his own with anybody standing up, and he proved that even more in his last bout. Justin Gaethje enters this fight with a 20-2 record and has won 85 percent of his fights by knockout. At this point, Gaethje seems to be 100 percent dedicated to his standup and wants to head hunt. This will be Gaethjes first career fight outside of the United States. Gaethje has earned performance bonuses in all five of his UFC fights. It was a risky game plan, but its what we expect from Gaethje, and he showed just how powerful his hands are if he lands clean flesh. Gaethje is fresh off probably the biggest win of his career and the most impressive, as he stood in there with a dangerous strike in Barboza, ate the leg kicks and landed a nasty right hand that knocked the lights out. Gaethje has won 10 of his last 12 fights and is coming off a March win over Edson Barboza. However, Gaethje comes from a wrestling background and has a trainer who works relentlessly on technique, so at some point youd think that would come into play. Gaethje is averaging zero takedowns with an accuracy percentage of zero percent.

Part of it is just standard outside-the-UFC dominant champ booking (similar to that of Marlon Moraes, who also drew a tough top-5 contender in his UFC debut to take advantage of his developed skillset before he started to decline), but it also just seemed like a function of pure bad luck to face three awful style matchups in a row. Curiously, Justin Gaethjes career seems to be following a somewhat reversed-track for an elite talent; where most great fighters tend to start strong only for their weaknesses to be revealed, Gaethjes limitations were on display just as much as his strengths were in his first three UFC bouts, but the two fights after that showed what he can be against anyone else. With Poirier out of the picture for now and Alvarez no longer a contender, Gaethje has a path to the title shot that seems less obviously grueling than the one that he had to go through the first time, and that path goes through Cerrone.

Defensively, Gaethje is actually fairly sound; while his approach leaves him in harms way fairly often, all of his opponents needed serious craft to land clean on his head through a high-guard that Gaethje uses as well as anyone (adjusting it as his opponent throws, countering out of it, and moving his head). All of that culminates in Gaethjes game with his opponent against the fence, which is where each of his last three wins ended; Gaethje can herd his opponent into one big shot, as he did to Vick and Barboza, but the Johnson performance was more characteristic of his punishing and relentless clinch-game against a tired foe. In the open, Gaethjes a very strong kicker, notably to the legs and on the counter, which often shortchanges his opponents combinations as it knocks them out of stance (as it did to Dustin Poirier numerous times), and theyre powerful enough to deal serious attritive damage extremely early in the fight.

Gaethje, set for Saturday, September 14th in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. The main card streams live on ESPN+ at 8 PM ET/5 PM PT, with prelims also on ESPN+ at 5 PM ET/2 PM PT. The main event is a five-round lightweight bout between highly entertaining contenders Justin Gaethje and Donald Cerrone. Check out Bloody Elbows pre-fight, fight night, and post-fight coverage for UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs.

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Hes probably not going to find success in the pocket against someone who can counterpunch his blitzes, and Gaethje probably outkicks him (Cerrone isnt great at kicking on the backfoot, and Gaethje outkicked Barboza before the finish). Cerrone isnt likely to have success with the knee against a fighter who can pressure effectively (instead of just trying to run forward to swarm), and he doesnt have the footwork on the outside to alleviate Gaethjes pressure.

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