TCU (@1.57) vs Kansas State (@2.38)
19-10-2019

Our Prediction:

TCU will win

TCU – Kansas State Match Prediction | 19-10-2019 14:30

There's enough explosiveness in the run game and pressure along the D-line for TCU to win this, but a mistake or two from quarterback Kenny Hill keeps this one uncomfortably close. TCU has played well, but West Virginia had success running the ball on them in Week 6. K-State doesn't have a Justin Crawfordin its offense, but they play the type of grinding offense that wears opponents down. Tack on Bill Snyder's genius as a game-week planner and this figures to be a tough outing for TCU.

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Unsurprisingly, I think the best play in this particular spot is to lay the 4.5 points and take TCU to cover on the road. I fully expect TCU to remain undefeated while their top 15 run defense frustrates this Wildcats offense all afternoon. The Horned Frogs have just beat two top 25 ranked opponents in a row and are firing on all cylinders right now. On the other hand, I am a little worried about a slight letdown for this Kansas State team after losing last week in such dramatic fashion.

Jesse Ertz is the best passing option at quarterback, but he hasn't been 100 percent healthy and Alex Delton is expected to start. (As it so happens, TCU is next to last at 30.6 attempts per game.) However, passing inefficiency was a brutal 44.22 rating in a 14-7 loss to Vanderbilt. Kansas State:Can the receivers make enough plays to create offensive balance? The Wildcats are dead last in the Big 12 in passing offense, and that's fine by itself because no team throws comes close to throwing fewer passes per game.

They certainly have a very capable ground attack but again, I dont exactly things going all that well for them on Saturday against this TCU team that is only allowing an average of 104 rushing yards per game to opponents. The Horned Frogs are also 4-0 ATS in their last four road games, including going 4-0 ATS on the road against teams with a winning record. However, the Wildcats are ranked #93 overall while averaging just 194.2 yards passing per game. I might have a little more faith in Kansas State if their passing offense was even just slightly above average.

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However, as it currently sits the Horned Frogs offer a ton of value I fully expect them to remain undefeated while winning by at least five points. 4.5 points doesnt sound like all that much to give up to me, and I certainly expect TCU to be able to pull away in the end. Ultimately, I think that TCU should be able to cover the number against Kansas State with relative ease. If it was approaching double-digits, I might have to reconsider laying the points especially since Kansas State currently boasts one of the top 50 defensive units nationwide.

The Wildcats played the Longhorns tough all game before finally losing 40-34 and falling to 3-2 on the season. His favorite target appears to be sophomore WR Dalton Schoen, who has recorded a team-high 269 receiving yards while adding three touchdowns. As mentioned previoiusly, the Horned Frogs are incredibly tough to beat on the ground. The strength of this Kansas State offense is definitely their ground attack, however, that may have to change this weekend if they hope to upset TCU at home. Ertz may have to put up a few more passes than he would normally if Kansas State hopes to keep pace. Kansas State lost a heart-breaker to Texas in double overtime last weekend. QB Jesse Ertz has been having a very successfulseason in pretty much every offensive category he has passed for almost 1,000 yards while leading the way on the ground with 336 rushing yards.

TCU allowed 500+ total yards to West Virginia but also managed to force two extremely timely turnovers that ultimately led to victory. QB Kenny Hill and leading rusher Darius Anderson continued to excel on the offensive side of the ball, while WR John Diarse was the biggest contributor from a stacked receiving corps. The Horned Frogs pulled out a late victory over #23 ranked West Virginia last weekend to improve to 5-0 on the season. This defensive unit has looked great against the rush all year they are currently the #15 overall run defense in the entire nation (104.0 yards per game to opponents). However, they have also really struggled against the pass, allowing an average of over 255 yards per game (104th overall). The Horned Frogs will need another big effort from this offense on Sunday, especially since they are facing a Big 12 rival that is 3-0 at home so far this season (while averaging 40+ points).

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Hes been solid for much of the season, including eight tackles against OU last week, and will be needed to stop the TCU running game this week. Patton is second on the team in tackles (49) and has two tackles for loss. He came to K-State as the 5th-ranked JUCO OLB in the nation in the Class of 2017 and redshirted last season.